TARGET AREA FORECAST FOR 4/21/08

As of right now, the SPC has issued a slight risk of T-storms for most of northern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and eastern Missouri. The discussion basically states that T-storms will be severe with supercells possible IF the cap can break later this evening with the arrival of forcing for ascent.

Actually, after looking at the recent NAM and GFS model runs, I'm not too impressed. Yes, good moisture will be available but the wind fields look less than impressive. According to the latest NAM, the 300mb winds are a meager 45-50 kts in the risk area. The winds at 500mb are forecast to be about 25-30 kts in the risk area which is ok, but it's still nothing to write home about. Now comes the 850 winds. They are forecast to be a meager 5-10 kts which is absolutely pathetic. Obviously these are model forecasts and things might change for the better or worse as the day progresses.

Now for the cap issues. The forecast 700mb temps are about 6-7 degrees Celsius which is strong for this time of year, but it's breakable with the right ingredients. I believe the fairly high Td will help erode the cap along with daytime highs in the upper 70's to the mid 80's in the risk area. I think there will be patches of cirrus clouds with the approach of the upper level energy. Satellite will have to be monitored today to look for the best areas of clearing which will enhance the chances of a storm breaking the cap. I don't think the cap will suppress all convection today. I do think a couple of storm will break out around late evening. I think the biggest worries today will be large hail due to CAPE values possibly exceeding 4000 j/kg.

All in all, If I was off today things would really have to improve before I decided to chase. Things just don't look that great to me. Maybe I'm missing something, but I just don't like the setup much. Now if things looked really good, I most definitely would take the chance, even if I thought the cap would hold.

TARGET: Pawnee, OK just for the heck of it!!!