The NAM or the GFS, that's the question. If you believe the GFS, the play for Saturday will be in NW Oklahoma and the NE Texas Panhandle. Go with the NAM, and the play will be south of I-40 in western Oklahoma and SW parts of Oklahoma.
I'm really not sure which one to go with. I know that a lot of times the models underestimate the progression of a colf front. If that's the case, the NAM may be the best bet since it places the front further south than the GFS.
Of course, moisture won't be a problem. I think low to mid 60's will be in place in the warm sector by initiation time.
The LLJ ramps up at dark, so helicity will be pretty high at this time. If a supercell gets rooted in the boundary layer and stays isolated, there may very well be some tornadoes after dark. I think the storms may stay fairly isolated tomorrow too. For one, the cap may be a bit strong. Reason two...there won't be a massive low coming in with a lot of lift. There will be small impulses being ejected by the main low which may help to keep things a little more isolated.
All in all, it should be a good day. As for a loose target right now, I think I'm going to play a little further south of my original target of Laverne, OK. How does VICI, OK sound? Good!
VICI, OK IT IS!!!
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1 comment:
see you out there!!!!
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