I'm really liking the area in SW Kansas today. Will there be any tornadoes? It's very unlikely but who knows. Will there be very large hail? Probably not, but again who knows.
Today is one of the "little days" where people get caught with their pants down. Some of the small, insignificant days are the ones to watch. I know I have been caught with my pants down on days like this, and I'm sure you have too.
I think there is a pretty decent chance of a good sculpted LP supercell in SW Kansas today. An area of low pressure is progged to enter the region in the late afternoon which will contribute to the energy needed for storms. The dewpoints will be meager, but sometimes upper 40's and low 50's dewpoints can do wonders. Daytime heating along with decent moisture will contribute to CAPE values in the neighborhood of 1,000-1,500 j/kg.
Directional and speed shear isn't too awfully bad either. Upper level winds are progged to be 90 kts or so and mid level winds are progged to be around 45 kts. Lower level winds are progged to be around 20-30 kts.
As of right now, I'm targeting Sublette, KS. It has decent road access and I think it will be a good starting point. Here's a tip for the chasers out there. Boys and girls, don't get caught with your pants down today! See ya in SW Kansas!
1 comment:
I wasn't even going to look at the SPC outlook until I read your blog. I would have been trying to run up to SW KS with my pants around my ankles. LOL!! Hope to see you out there!
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